All In Podcast

Prediction

[00:09:30 - 00:10:06] We’re much closer to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine than people think; a ceasefire could happen in the next two to three weeks as both sides narrow remaining deal points and use aggressive rhetoric to extract final concessions.

Prediction

[00:16:39 - 00:17:06] Widespread famine will occur by the end of this year due to disruptions to wheat exports/planting and fertilizer supply (nitrogen/phosphate/potash), leading to significant food shortages especially in vulnerable countries as richer nations outbid them for calories.

Prediction

[00:37:18 - 00:37:45] Russia will become a Chinese client state as a result of the West’s economic severing, with Russian natural resources increasingly flowing to China and strengthening China’s economy geopolitically over time.

Prediction

[00:45:56 - 00:46:10] The U.S. economy will face a recession later this year driven by energy-price blowback and broader economic consequences from severing ties with Russia (e.g., gas rising toward $7–$10/gallon), creating a major downside scenario if the conflict isn’t resolved.

Prediction

[00:50:33 - 00:53:00] Markets will likely rise over the next month to two months (‘melt up’) because key uncertainties (Fed path and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine deal) have been reduced; absent a major escalation, near-term dynamics remain constructive.

Prediction

[00:54:58 - 00:55:22] Private-market valuations will continue repricing downward toward pre-COVID multiples (e.g., from ~100x back toward ~20x), with deals taking longer and more diligence, implying a sustained reset rather than a quick bounce back.