All recent predictions

Prediction

[00:09:30 - 00:10:06] We’re much closer to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine than people think; a ceasefire could happen in the next two to three weeks as both sides narrow remaining deal points and use aggressive rhetoric to extract final concessions.

Prediction

[00:16:39 - 00:17:06] Widespread famine will occur by the end of this year due to disruptions to wheat exports/planting and fertilizer supply (nitrogen/phosphate/potash), leading to significant food shortages especially in vulnerable countries as richer nations outbid them for calories.

Prediction

[00:37:18 - 00:37:45] Russia will become a Chinese client state as a result of the West’s economic severing, with Russian natural resources increasingly flowing to China and strengthening China’s economy geopolitically over time.

Prediction

[00:45:56 - 00:46:10] The U.S. economy will face a recession later this year driven by energy-price blowback and broader economic consequences from severing ties with Russia (e.g., gas rising toward $7–$10/gallon), creating a major downside scenario if the conflict isn’t resolved.

Prediction

[00:50:33 - 00:53:00] Markets will likely rise over the next month to two months (‘melt up’) because key uncertainties (Fed path and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine deal) have been reduced; absent a major escalation, near-term dynamics remain constructive.

Prediction

[00:54:58 - 00:55:22] Private-market valuations will continue repricing downward toward pre-COVID multiples (e.g., from ~100x back toward ~20x), with deals taking longer and more diligence, implying a sustained reset rather than a quick bounce back.

Prediction

[00:04:17 - 00:05:03] The California wealth/asset 'seizure tax' ballot initiative will remain a major topic throughout the year; by around April it will become clear whether it qualifies for the ballot, and if it does there will be a major public 'freakout' and a rush of wealthy residents leaving the state; the final outcome will be decided in the November election and then followed by legal challenges, making it a multi-year saga.

Prediction

[00:05:03 - 00:05:14] Even if California’s wealth/asset tax is defeated in 2026, a version of it will return and be proposed again in 2028, keeping the 'bomb' from going away for high-net-worth residents and founders.

Prediction

[00:14:30 - 00:14:37] By June, the U.S. will see additional interest-rate cuts totaling roughly 75–100 basis points, further easing mortgages and supporting growth.

Prediction

[00:15:02 - 00:15:05] U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will be about 5%.

Prediction

[00:15:09 - 00:15:15] U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will be between about 5% and 6.2%.

Prediction

[00:15:43 - 00:15:47] U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will be about 4.6%.

Prediction

[00:13:07 - 00:13:17] In 2026, Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) will solidify a takeover-like influence of the Democratic Party, analogous to MAGA’s takeover of the GOP.

Prediction

[00:13:20 - 00:13:36] In 2026, the biggest political winners will be candidates/politicians who credibly fight waste, fraud, and abuse at federal, state, and local levels.

Prediction

[00:13:44 - 00:14:52] In 2026, the 'Trump boom'—a surge in economic performance and positive economic perception—will be the biggest political winner.

Prediction

[00:18:07 - 00:19:35] In 2026, Democratic centrists (Democratic centrism) will be major political losers as safe-seat dynamics and activist pressure push incumbents leftward.

Prediction

[00:22:42 - 00:23:16] In 2026, the tech industry will be a major political loser, becoming a lightning rod for bipartisan populism and facing a midterm 'referendum' against tech and AI wealth.

Prediction

[00:33:04 - 00:33:26] In 2026, Huawei will outperform Western expectations as it deepens its chip-stack capabilities (e.g., via SMIC partnership) and executes across product lines.

Prediction

[00:33:22 - 00:33:58] In 2026, prediction markets—especially Polymarket—will have a breakout year, becoming a core source of real-time news/insight and integrating into major exchanges’ offerings.

Prediction

[00:34:27 - 00:35:39] In 2026, copper prices will surge ('go parabolic') due to worsening global supply-demand imbalance and strategic national-security-driven demand across data centers, chips, and weapons systems.

Prediction

[00:35:43 - 00:36:09] 2026 will be a major year for IPOs, reversing the trend of shrinking public-company counts and potentially adding trillions of dollars of new public-market capitalization.

Prediction

[00:36:19 - 00:37:09] In 2026, Amazon will have a massive year as robotics and automation drive operational leverage; it will approach becoming the first 'corporate singularity' where robots contribute more to the bottom line than humans.

Prediction

[00:40:55 - 00:41:59] In 2026, state governments will face a financing crunch as audits/exposés of waste/fraud/abuse and recognition of large unfunded pension liabilities cause investors to question long-term solvency and raise borrowing costs.

Prediction

[00:43:03 - 00:44:54] In 2026, the 'software industrial complex' (seat-based licensed enterprise SaaS, plus maintenance and migration revenue) will be a major business loser as agents/tools compress the 90% revenue pools (maintenance/migration) and public SaaS companies’ growth is hit severely.

Prediction

[00:44:58 - 00:45:20] In 2026, California will be a major business loser due to wealth-tax overhang and hostile regulation; if the wealth tax reaches the ballot it triggers a panic and 'rush for the exits' and California will also see higher gas prices from two refinery closures by spring.

Prediction

[00:45:33 - 00:46:26] In 2026, young white-collar workers will be major business losers as entry-level jobs become harder to get because firms automate junior tasks with AI rather than train new graduates.

Prediction

[00:51:19 - 00:51:39] In 2026, the Russia–Ukraine war will settle/resolve, bringing more stability to the region amid a broader geopolitical reset.

Prediction

[00:51:53 - 00:53:20] In 2026, large tech transactions will increasingly be executed as IP-licensing 'M&A workarounds' (rather than full acquisitions) totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, because conventional cross-border and antitrust review makes traditional M&A effectively infeasible.

Prediction

[00:53:48 - 00:54:36] In 2026, a $50B+ mega-deal will occur, likely involving a Mag 7 buyer acquiring (or effectively acquiring via alternative structure) a major AI company such as xAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic.

Prediction

[00:56:49 - 00:57:04] In 2026, Iran will undergo a revolution/turnover where the ayatollahs are removed, leading toward a new (more democratic) Iranian state.

Prediction

[00:57:04 - 00:58:25] In 2026, the Middle East may become more conflict-prone due to rivalry among Gulf states (e.g., UAE, Saudi, Qatar) and adjacent regions (Yemen factions, Somaliland dynamics) as Iran turns over and regional actors compete for influence over Palestinian governance outcomes.

Prediction

[00:58:26 - 01:00:00] In 2026, AI will increase—not decrease—demand for knowledge workers as falling costs create more use cases (a Jevons-paradox effect), leading to net job gains rather than job losses.

Prediction

[01:00:27 - 01:01:04] SpaceX will not IPO; instead, it will reverse-merge into Tesla, consolidating Elon Musk’s two key assets onto one cap table.

Prediction

[01:01:05 - 01:02:13] Central banks will pursue a new, controllable cryptographic reserve asset paradigm (beyond gold/Bitcoin) designed to be private and quantum-resistant, and will seek to put it on their balance sheets within the next 5–10 years.

Prediction

[01:02:33 - 01:03:06] In 2026, the U.S.–China standoff will largely be resolved, including reduced tension around Taiwan, as the U.S. and China arrive at a workable relationship during Trump’s second term.

Prediction

[01:09:15 - 01:09:22] In 2026, the worst-performing asset will be California luxury real estate due to the overhang and fear from the proposed wealth/asset tax.

Prediction

[01:11:03 - 01:11:52] In 2026, hydrocarbons (oil) will be a poor-performing asset, with oil more likely to fall toward ~$45 per barrel than rise toward ~$65, as electrification and storage shrink oil’s demand surface area.

Prediction

[01:13:21 - 01:13:42] In 2026, traditional media stocks will underperform as independent creators (via platforms like YouTube) continue to commoditize and displace traditional media’s distribution and content advantages.

Prediction

[01:18:32 - 01:18:45] In 2026, auditing government spending at all levels (federal, state, local) will become a major anticipated/visible trend, with broader public and political push for transparency and accountability.